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It is one of the most striking developments unfolding in the world today: at the apparent peak of civilisation – just as biotechnology and computer science were beginning to transcend what it means to be human – we suddenly stopped having children.
So what on earth is going on?
Between 1960 and 2022, fertility rates across OECD countries fell from 3.3 children per woman to 1.5. There are many explanations. But how convincing are they?
Is it really because having children has become more expensive? If so, you might expect generous family policies and strong welfare systems to make a difference. Yet in countries where these are firmly in place, such as the Nordic countries, fertility has fallen just as sharply.
Could it be the rise of a more intensive parenting culture, with impossibly high expectations of what it means to be a parent? Have we simply had enough? Or is the real problem somewhere else entirely?
According to Financial Times journalist John Burn-Murdoch, none of the above may be the full explanation. After extensive analysis and investigation, he instead points to a familiar scapegoat of our time: the smartphone.
Because the heart of the problem, Burn-Murdoch argues, may not be that we are having fewer children. It is that we are forming fewer relationships in the digital age. Smartphones have changed how young people meet, socialise, date and fall in love. And Burn-Murdoch sees the same pattern emerging across the world.
If that is the case, there is little point in focusing only on what we can do to persuade prospective parents to have more children.
So what would it take to reverse the trend? And what happens if we fail?
Det er et av de mest slående utviklingstrekkene vi ser i verden: På sivilisasjonens tilsynelatende toppunkt har vi plutselig sluttet å få barn. Trenden er global og det er ingen tegn til at det vil snu.
Hva er det egentlig som foregår? Hva blir konsekvensene? Og finnes det noe vi kan gjøre?
John Burn-Murdoch er granskende journalist i Financial Times. Metodene hans ligger i krysningspunktet mellom journalistiskk og samfunnsforskning. Han tror han har funnet årsaken til fødselskrisen, men har han en medisin?
Vilde Bratland Hansen er journalist og forfatter. I høst er hun aktuell med boka 1,5 menneske. Derfor får vi ikke barna vi ønsker oss (2026). Hun har sine egne forklaringer.
Kjell Salvanes er professor i samfunnsøkonomi ved NHH. Salvanes blant annet jobbet mye med fertilitetsspørsmålet. Hva sier han?
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